- Impact
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This will be seen as Day 1 of the implosion of new gTLDs. Fundamental shift of opinion and direction happened at Mind+Machines the owners of .London .Law and the not so good .Horse .Rodeo, 20 in total. Big player in this space.
If you are investing in new gTLDs, you really need to read this.
I started a thread headless.domainer in a topless.bar to show why the new gTLDs have not taken off and why they will not. There was little defense of the new gTLDs .
Fortunately the fired co founder of Mind+Machines the CEO, who arguably is a bigger new gTLD believer than Frank Shilling, gave a detail response why he got fired and his difference of opinion with the board (notably all the board members voted him out). His response I feel is the best defense of the new gTLDs, he's still a big believer, so Im going to break his response down to get an insight of what is happening in this space.
Minds + Machines, the company I founded in 2009, informed me last week that I was no longer wanted as CEO.
Now what? New gTLDs are barely birthed. The industry is very young. Twelve million new gTLD names have been sold in just about two years. That's nearly 5% of all domain names out there. What reasonable person doesn't expect that to rise to 20% or more within the next few years? There's a lot of opportunity in the field.
ICANN predicted originally 33 million new gTLD domain name registrations in 2015—a number it later revised to just 15 million. Didnt hit that, so by any measure the numbers are pitiful
Conveniently forgets even those numbers are inflated by 5million that were registered at $1 or less. A rise to 20% of nothing is nothing. Interestingly his last post blasted strings like .xyz for distorting registration numbers and giving new gLTDs a bad rep for spam and fraud.
Domianers have spent by far the most acquiring these names. We are holding up this whole ecosystem.
And yet there are some signs of desperation out there. (AGREE) Demand for new gTLDs hasn't been what anyone expected.(AGREE) Many single-TLD registries, though not all, are hurting.(AGREE) Many registrars still do not fully support new gTLDs that aren't plain-vanilla .com clones. Its because they dont sell, GoDaddy and others will only promote what the enduser want, its your job to create enduser demand.
ICANN continues to treat registries and registrars as unpleasant necessities despite the fact that its sky-rocketing budget is underwritten by domain name sales. No breakout awareness of new gTLDs has yet occurred and until it does marketing of the new gTLDs, many feel as useless as pushing a piece of string.
OH its ICANNs responsibility to promote the new gTLDs. YEP no marketing, no awareness, no sales, its Business 101 But I forgot the new gTLDs were special, there was going to be people banging down your door to reg them. Didn't happen, so its ICANNs fault, not that you completely over estimated demand. If you felt that the new gTLDs would fail without ICANN promoting them, shouldnt you have made sure they were going to do that before you sunk millions into new gTLDs.
Even so, the larger players in our industry continue to be very bullish: .shop went for more than $40M, the single biggest mistake in domain history, wrote a post about that as well.
.app went for $25M and a secondary market in new gTLDs is heating up fast. Really could of fooled us domainers. Existing registries, and companies outside the space, are on the prowl. Despite the perceived lack of demand, some people are clearly seeing a lot of value in new gTLDs. Yes and Mind + Machines are hoping to be brought out before they lose more money. Have not shown an operational profit since its inception in 2009.
Why the disconnect? It's a matter of perspective, and cash. Owning a registry, or even better a portfolio of them, is a fantastic long-term business. Those who can't think long term (no cash) or won't (no vision), will not be well served by what's to come. OK so you wanted to burn more cash to realize your long term vision and the board disagreed with your long term vision being profitable and wanted to call a halt to the cash spend.
What kind of registries are out there, and how will they fare? Below I've listed some of the major types of commercial models (non-brand) that exist today, and what their prospects are; there are also hybrids of these models.
There selling cheap because they are not making any money and your board decided they never will.
One thing we agree on IS there will be consolidation as more of these new gTLDs fail.
Internet Identity that looks at security of the internet for businesses and governments said this recently about the new gTLDs, and remember they have no axe to grind, they are not invested one way or another.
IID anticipates an unprecedented series of domain registry failures as a result of the lack of gTLD popularity by 2017 in the form of bankruptcies and abandonment. “Most new gTLDs have failed to take off and many have already been riddled with so many fraudulent and junk registrations that they are being blocked wholesale,” said IID President and CTO Rod Rasmussen. “This will eventually cause ripple effects on the entire domain registration ecosystem, including consolidation and mass consumer confusion as unprofitable TLDs are dropped by their sponsoring registries.” WHEN THIS HAPPENS BAD PUBLICITY FOR ALL new gTLDs and LOSE OF TRUST. THIS WILL BE THE NAIL IN THE COFFIN.
I have been a domainer since late December 1999 and what I see today really worries me about domainers losing their shirt. Do your research and invest wisely guys. Dont listen to propaganda, look at the numbers, they dont lie.
If you are investing in new gTLDs, you really need to read this.
I started a thread headless.domainer in a topless.bar to show why the new gTLDs have not taken off and why they will not. There was little defense of the new gTLDs .
Fortunately the fired co founder of Mind+Machines the CEO, who arguably is a bigger new gTLD believer than Frank Shilling, gave a detail response why he got fired and his difference of opinion with the board (notably all the board members voted him out). His response I feel is the best defense of the new gTLDs, he's still a big believer, so Im going to break his response down to get an insight of what is happening in this space.
Minds + Machines, the company I founded in 2009, informed me last week that I was no longer wanted as CEO.
Now what? New gTLDs are barely birthed. The industry is very young. Twelve million new gTLD names have been sold in just about two years. That's nearly 5% of all domain names out there. What reasonable person doesn't expect that to rise to 20% or more within the next few years? There's a lot of opportunity in the field.
ICANN predicted originally 33 million new gTLD domain name registrations in 2015—a number it later revised to just 15 million. Didnt hit that, so by any measure the numbers are pitiful
Conveniently forgets even those numbers are inflated by 5million that were registered at $1 or less. A rise to 20% of nothing is nothing. Interestingly his last post blasted strings like .xyz for distorting registration numbers and giving new gLTDs a bad rep for spam and fraud.
Domianers have spent by far the most acquiring these names. We are holding up this whole ecosystem.
And yet there are some signs of desperation out there. (AGREE) Demand for new gTLDs hasn't been what anyone expected.(AGREE) Many single-TLD registries, though not all, are hurting.(AGREE) Many registrars still do not fully support new gTLDs that aren't plain-vanilla .com clones. Its because they dont sell, GoDaddy and others will only promote what the enduser want, its your job to create enduser demand.
ICANN continues to treat registries and registrars as unpleasant necessities despite the fact that its sky-rocketing budget is underwritten by domain name sales. No breakout awareness of new gTLDs has yet occurred and until it does marketing of the new gTLDs, many feel as useless as pushing a piece of string.
OH its ICANNs responsibility to promote the new gTLDs. YEP no marketing, no awareness, no sales, its Business 101 But I forgot the new gTLDs were special, there was going to be people banging down your door to reg them. Didn't happen, so its ICANNs fault, not that you completely over estimated demand. If you felt that the new gTLDs would fail without ICANN promoting them, shouldnt you have made sure they were going to do that before you sunk millions into new gTLDs.
Even so, the larger players in our industry continue to be very bullish: .shop went for more than $40M, the single biggest mistake in domain history, wrote a post about that as well.
.app went for $25M and a secondary market in new gTLDs is heating up fast. Really could of fooled us domainers. Existing registries, and companies outside the space, are on the prowl. Despite the perceived lack of demand, some people are clearly seeing a lot of value in new gTLDs. Yes and Mind + Machines are hoping to be brought out before they lose more money. Have not shown an operational profit since its inception in 2009.
Why the disconnect? It's a matter of perspective, and cash. Owning a registry, or even better a portfolio of them, is a fantastic long-term business. Those who can't think long term (no cash) or won't (no vision), will not be well served by what's to come. OK so you wanted to burn more cash to realize your long term vision and the board disagreed with your long term vision being profitable and wanted to call a halt to the cash spend.
What kind of registries are out there, and how will they fare? Below I've listed some of the major types of commercial models (non-brand) that exist today, and what their prospects are; there are also hybrids of these models.
- Registry as a domainer play: the registry is essentially an unlimited portfolio of names, and like a domainer you can price your inventory, park it, and wait for the right buyer to walk through the door. This model is concerned with understanding the value of each name and pricing it for maximum return. It also requires staying power and self-sufficiency; impatient investors are going to have a hard time with this model. This is the premium pricing and renewals model that the registries like so much. So the numbers look crap noone is buying them at the prices you set and investors are getting restless. Perhaps they are overpriced.
- Registry as supermarket. Sell it super-cheap or give it away and try to win on large volumes with low margins. Because low prices disproportionately attract fraudsters, this approach is problematic but in the short term at least it seems to be profitable. In terms of resale, however, it may be a poisoned well. (AGREE).
- Registry as small business. Make some nice signs, tell some friends, try to get good shelf space at the local store, take out some stands at trade shows, get some testimonials, keep the costs down, and build the business over time. This can work if there are no investors, or if they are angel investors looking for a nice ongoing income in the future. Having a single TLD instead of a portfolio is actually an advantage here. AGREE keep cost down, BUT 47% of the strings are not even profitable if you say there is only a $150,000 annual running cost.
- Registry as part of a bigger plan. Naming is part of a vaster ecosystem that includes the branding, positioning, marketing, selling and licensing of companies, goods, and services on the Internet. And, importantly, it includes Internet governance. It takes no great power of observation to see that being a big registry, essential to commerce and communication on the Internet, contributing substantial amounts to ICANN, gets you a privileged seat at ICANN, at the center of things when it comes to deciding what the Internet will look like in 10 years. That's actually worth a lot, but it's only available, or useful, to the biggest players. A dig at Verisign influence on ICANN. Again ICANNs fault. ICANN is the scape goat for the failing new gTLDs, I expect we will hear this more and more but they are not there to promote the registries names.
There selling cheap because they are not making any money and your board decided they never will.
One thing we agree on IS there will be consolidation as more of these new gTLDs fail.
Internet Identity that looks at security of the internet for businesses and governments said this recently about the new gTLDs, and remember they have no axe to grind, they are not invested one way or another.
IID anticipates an unprecedented series of domain registry failures as a result of the lack of gTLD popularity by 2017 in the form of bankruptcies and abandonment. “Most new gTLDs have failed to take off and many have already been riddled with so many fraudulent and junk registrations that they are being blocked wholesale,” said IID President and CTO Rod Rasmussen. “This will eventually cause ripple effects on the entire domain registration ecosystem, including consolidation and mass consumer confusion as unprofitable TLDs are dropped by their sponsoring registries.” WHEN THIS HAPPENS BAD PUBLICITY FOR ALL new gTLDs and LOSE OF TRUST. THIS WILL BE THE NAIL IN THE COFFIN.
I have been a domainer since late December 1999 and what I see today really worries me about domainers losing their shirt. Do your research and invest wisely guys. Dont listen to propaganda, look at the numbers, they dont lie.
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