domain Nameworth.com Experiment "90% chance it will sell in 7 Days"

[ShowMeDomains]

I've seen some other people discuss using Nameworth domain appraisal tool as somewhat of a "guide" so a few weeks ago I started a membership.

I really like the look of it and it provides some different categories for appraising the domain.
It also shows other extensions taken and Additional similar Domains as well as Similar active sites and their Alexa/Majestic Rank.

So a couple hrs ago as I was in a drive- thru line waiting on my food I started playing the GD appraisal just seeing if names are available, (surely I'm not the only one that kills time doing that), anyway I found one that I liked. ILLBank(dot)com, It had a GD valuation of $2,165. I registered it.

Nameworth has an Est. Retail Price of $29,500 and puts it into their Tier 2, Super Premium.

Under the Lower Level, Auction Level, it puts the value at $1,770 and says the chances
of selling it for this price to other domain investors in the next 7 days in 90%.

I figured this would be a good one to put this category of theirs to the test.

So, it is now listed on 3 different marketplaces, all at BIN of $1,770 and I am not going to change the pricing or add make an offer until the 7 days are up.

Cast your vote on if I'll sell this hand reg in the next 7 days for $1,770 or not and obviously I will reveal the outcome.
Cheers!

 

[Pazu]

Another thought on this - given a large number of domains similar to the domain being estimated, maybe the 7 day figure is possible provided you do outbound to the leads provided. If there were, say, 30 domain holders you think would want to purchase your name, they're probably not going to be checking to see if the domain is for sale within 7 days of acquisition. You'd have to either mail them to alert them to the opportunity or wait a year or two for them to get curious or stumble upon it. (Full disclosure: I don't do outbound).

In this case, to quote Glengarry Glen Ross, "The leads are weak!"

 

[Ategy]

I don't get it? To me this is a worthless domain unless ILL actually stands for something significant (if it did them you should have stated so in the first post, so I'm assume the only thing ILL stands for is being sick .. which actually makes it worse than a random 3L combo as nobody wants a business names associated with being ill/sick).

Remember that automated valuations are pretty much useless when talking about single domains. Your including those numbers in the first post has effectively zero significance.

The one thing people always overlook with automated appraisals is that while they might sometimes get the range sometimes in the right ballpark .. an absolutely crucial factor missing is chance/probability of sale.

So yes .. *IF* there is a buyer for a 3L+Bank.com domain they could certainly be willing to pay $2k. But the demand for random 3LBank domains is virtually nil .. again .. unless ILL is something significant.

 

[Pazu]

I sold bci mobile dotcom for $6000, handregged, and it was totally not what I intended with the prefix. Took over a year with 1000+ portfolio.

 

[ShowMeDomains]

I don't get it? To me this is a worthless domain unless ILL actually stands for something significant (if it did them you should have stated so in the first post, so I'm assume the only thing ILL stands for is being sick .. which actually makes it worse than a random 3L combo as nobody wants a business names associated with being ill/sick).

Remember that automated valuations are pretty much useless when talking about single domains. Your including those numbers in the first post has effectively zero significance.

The one thing people always overlook with automated appraisals is that while they might sometimes get the range sometimes in the right ballpark .. an absolutely crucial factor missing is chance/probability of sale.

So yes .. *IF* there is a buyer for a 3L+Bank.com domain they could certainly be willing to pay $2k. But the demand for random 3LBank domains is virtually nil .. again .. unless ILL is something significant.

Perhaps you should start with the title and then read the entire correspondence.

 

[wurdd]

That damn ol' Phineas Taylor Barnum sure was right.

 

[enterscope]

I voted Nah but I really hope it does! Fingers crossed for you.

edit* thanks for sharing Nameworth looks like a very useful tool! GL

 

[ShowMeDomains]

Appreciate it, I won’t hold my breath though!
I think i will dig into this further to see if there’s a particular niche of domains that could, on a larger scale, produce some consistency on selling them in 7 days, relatively close to the given valuation for their 90% chance of selling.
It could be a super liquidation tool if it exists at all.
Anyway, thanks again.

 

[Ategy]

.. every day when I look at the top of the NameBio sales list, many names that I simply can't see them selling at the price they went for. The new list is just out, and I looked at names over this price $1700+, and there are at least 5 that not only sold for more than I thought, but I simply would have said there was no chance they would sell anywhere near the price if at all. That is 5 out of about 25, and most days are like that.

You actually just proved my point at how bad domains like that actually are.

5 x 365 = 1825 such domains a year .. out of how many low-probability domains for sale out there? 35 million at least ... that makes of a 0.005% sell-trough rate A YEAR .. or a 0.0001% chance of selling in 7 days..

Yes you might make a long-shot lucky sale .. but such low-probability domains are effectively money burners. Selling at 100x on average you would lose 99.5% of your investment every year. And that's if it was equal in probability of sale as those 5 a day you're talking about .. which I'm not sure of.

That being said, it's nothing really specific to this domain .. there are tons that are at or below those 5 questionable domains that sell every day .. just because a few domains are lucky does not mean they ever were good investments ... *UNLESS* the investor had additional reasons for buying the domain(s).

What I’d like to see and hopefully will see in the not too distant future is an appraisal service that is powered with AI/machine learning tech, raising the bar so that the overall opinion of online appraisal services becomes better than “they’re all worthless” as most people seem to feel.

Increase the power of computing by a factor of 1,000,000 and you'll still never get an automated valuation tool that's even "good". The real problem is being able to program in all the non-scientific metrics .. and designing the basic algorithms. Remember domaining is as much art as it is science. There are many nuances and metrics that you can program into an algorithm .. but many you can't.

Plus why would you even want a good AI for domain valuation? The moment you get that we'll never be able to find undervalued gems. Every day I find absolute gems at closeout that are vastly underpriced .. that's how you make money .. by having a unique eye and perspective and finding gems that others miss.

That's what's great about domaining. Because while you obviously need to master all the concepts of domaining itself .. after that there are hundreds of millions of domains out there .. not everyone has the same life experience to identify all the gems. That's why I asked if there was something special about the "ILL" prefix .. because maybe there indeed is hidden value in it that my life experience didn't cross paths with.

Despite my going through the raw lists just about every single night for a few hours for well over 1000 days now, I guarantee that if you spend the same amount of time tomorrow even if for the first time, you would find a gem in there I'd have missed. THAT is how to make money domaining. The very last thing we'd ever want is an AI "eye" that sees everything on the artistic side of domains that a human sees and automations current are completely incapable of grasping aside from using cheat shortcuts via using other metrics (which sometimes works but certainly not always).


Automated tolls are fantastic tools for helping you find value on a broad scale and filtering through volume .. but ultimately as domainers we need to be able to see and understand the value and probability of sale in our acquisitions, otherwise there's a good chance we'll simply be burning money on domains where the math is so far from making sense that we'd be better off sending our money to African princes.

 

[Ategy]

Perhaps you should start with the title and then read the entire correspondence.

I wrote my first reply a few hours before pressing submit .. in the middle of about 5 different things .. lol

That being said .. don't take it too personal .. I say the same thing each time I cross people trying to find ways to rely on automated tools.

It's just so frustrating because there are no easy shortcuts in domaining. People are looking for magic tools and tricks. But the only magic is to develop your gut to see the actual likely value of a domain *AND* the actual likely probability of sale at that value.

Beyond that you need to take the probable sales amount and multiply it by the probability of sale. If the result is greater than 1, then it's an investable domain.

Ex:

Domain cost $20 .. probable sales amount $3000 = 150x mulitple .. at a 1% (0.01) annual sell-through probability .. equals 1.5 .. so such a domain would be a good investment.

illbank might indeed have a probable sales amount of $2000 .. but it's annual sell-through probability is so tiny that the math doesn't work. Not only does it not work .. but it doesn't even come close to working.

That's my concern .. is that if a domainer can't actually see that and is instead relying on automated tool that are far more often wrong than they are right with individual domains .. then that domainer is unfortunately in the wrong business. It concerns me to see anyone "experimenting" on automated tools when the answer "they are useless on an individual domain level" should already be obvious (specifically with brandables).


Anyhow .. sorry if this comes across as harsh .. it isn't specifically directed towards you .. but more towards the countless such threads that even hint at even the possibility of automated appraisals being a tool any domainer should ever reply on for specific individual (non-liquid) domains. YES they have some great metrics to help you form your own valuation .. I personally am a paying customer of Estibot .. automation tools can be very valuable to domainers .. but they should never be relied upon completely without a human filter when it comes to the value and probability of sale for individual domains.


All that said .. I do wish you luck with the domain .. because after everything I wrote .. you'll also notice that while I feel your domain is a very very very longshot .. your chances are not absolute zero!


ADDED: If you'd like to get a better understanding of the domain math I'm talking about, check out the following thread:
https://www.namepros.com/threads/turning-10-000-into-1-000-000-in-6-years-of-domaining.1175266/

 

[koolishman]

@Ategy

possibility of automated appraisals being a tool any domainer should ever reply on for specific individual (non-liquid) domains

EPIK is trying to build one. There is a recent thread.

 

[satyadeep singh]

good luck

 

[Ategy]

@Ategy

possibility of automated appraisals being a tool any domainer should ever reply on for specific individual (non-liquid) domains

EPIK is trying to build one. There is a recent thread.

lol .. it has nothing to do with who builds it. Each word combination is unique .. there are most certainly some domains that different automated tools will get right. Some automation algorithms that will be better than others. Certain algorithms that will yield more accurate results on some types of domains and others on others.

Ultimately you'll need a master at branding *AND* linguistics *AND* have them go through the dictionary to plug in how certain words relate to others and to value even the same words differently in multiple contexts. *THEN* also being able to translate those concepts into algorithms to derive value. Yes you can do some short cuts and it isn't the 10,000,000 man*hour project I make it out to be. But it's still a monstrous task .. and I have crossed very VERY few people if any who have a grasp on all those concepts *AND* also have a good grasp of what actually makes a good domain.

Ultimately domainers need to do all those things in their head as well in order to find good domains to invest in. I say it would be almost impossible to develop an algorithm .. but let me also be clear that most humans (domainers) don't have a strong enough grasp on the concepts either. That is why the vast majority of people entering domaining fail (particularly with brandables and 2-word combo brandables). I'm not sure how many people actually make a profit with such domains, but it's certainly a tiny minority .. particularly if you include all the ones that start for a few weeks, buy a few domains, and then give up because they didn't come close to make a profit. There has to be hundreds and likely thousands of those in-and-out domainers each and every year. I'm thinking maybe @Josh R might have a better guestimate on the number of domainers who work with such domains that actually make a profit.

Even a monstrously complex and detailed algorithm could never come close to an experienced domainer who has a broad general knowledge of the world and specifically industries that value and have demand for domains. I'll take my gut and brain and life-experience over even an extremely complex algorithm every day for the next 30+ years. When you get an AI that appreciates and accurately values art 97% of the time then come talk to me .. we aren't there technologically yet .. and most certainly not in terms of anyone being able to hammer out even a fraction of the algorithms necessary to achieve even a level of "not horrible".

I haven't been around here as much in the last month with everything else going on .. but what's the latest on Epik's valuation tool? (@Rob Monster?) .. link?


Also .. for those interested in the domain math I was talking about in my post above, check out the following post as I break it down in more detail and answer some questions ...
https://www.namepros.com/threads/turning-10-000-into-1-000-000-in-6-years-of-domaining.1175266/

 

[Pazu]

I suspect there are already some proprietary AI out there. I don't know how hugedomains and buydomains select their acquisitions. Judging by the hugedomains auction sniping thread, they use other buyers' interest as justification.

 

[Namesolve]

Let's hope for the very best.

 

[Ategy]

I suspect there are already some proprietary AI out there. I don't know how hugedomains and buydomains select their acquisitions. Judging by the hugedomains auction sniping thread, they use other buyers' interest as justification.

Those big players very likely use a hodgepodge of tools to grow their portfolio. They don't need "AI" to have a good system. Get me a good programmer(s) and a startup bankroll and a couple of sharp employees and I'll get you a kick-ass platform/system. I'm not sure why everyone automatically assumes these big players only use one rigid system .. it would be absurd not to build a multi-pronged system .. because if you do it properly you could come up with a great system.

Note that creating a good system to buy good domains coming through an auction stream is COMPLETELY different and much easier than coming up with an automated valuation algorithm for individual random domains. It would still require significant time/work .. but vastly less complex. It's essentially something that could indeed be done today (still with a lot of time/effort).


Anybody with a deep wallet and resources who wants to start the next HugeDomains, let me know .. but be warned my involvement, knowledge and sharing of all my ideas/secrets won't come cheap! lol

 

[BaileyUK]

Great thought-out and Diplomatic replies from Ategy. Me - yes I have to get straight to the point (no diplomats job for me out there then)

It's a shame that we old timers have to tread on Glass when calling-out bad domains or concepts. There are far to many domain investors that just seem to have great ideas on how to loose the shirts off their back and still bite back at any criticism.

 

[ecalc]

If a machine could reliably find $10 hand regs with 90% chance of reselling for $1770 in 7 days it would be humming behind closed doors while the owner counted money. No such thing exists and anyone promoting one to others is hoping to profit on domain registration fees or tool subscription fees.

 

[Joshh71390]

I dont know that I like this. imo it's looking at bank / and ill for search results, however im not positive.

I just dont see how they could say in less than 7 days someone is going to look for ill bank name and buy, unless of course they know someone wants it, but seeing as you reg'ed it ...

Best of luck and i hope it does sell at some point so we can see the way it plays out compared.

 

[enterscope]

It could be from LLL + Bank .com comps and other factors. But I'm starting to kind of like the name illbank.com not just from Illinois but also ILL acronym. It has a $2100+ GD appraisal too.

 

[BaileyUK]

I just dont see how they could say in less than 7 days someone is going to look for ill bank name and buy, unless of course they know someone wants it, but seeing as you reg'ed it ..

It's because the OP of this thread believed those so called " Valuation tools"(and their time-lines) Equally those who criticized us that questioned this so called experiment.. Are going to be 'Valuation-tool-believers of the same ilk.

Yes it was said over and over again that it was just an experiment - So Bit like throwing yourself off a tower block because you believe in a different theory of Gravity .

The Good news is nobody got harmed in this 'Experiment

 

[ShowMeDomains]

It could be from LLL + Bank .com comps and other factors. But I'm starting to kind of like the name illbank.com not just from Illinois but also ILL acronym. It has a $2100+ GD appraisal too.

I hear it’s for sale If you’re interested.

 

[CraigD]

So, it's May 22 (1 month down the track).

Did you get any bites @Makbliss?