discuss Upcomming 5l prediction

[Flipsbay]

Hello guys,

8 Months ago i was some what predicting 5l is the next big thing at that time some said its idiotic to think like that, some said impossible, some said only pronounceable are worth something. Now 2016 answers all those questions. We are looking even a bigger market than the so loved 4L.com domains

Anyway enough with the intro, what i wanted to know from you guys is what you think the future of 5l.com, both chips and pronounceable ones.

I think :

*** Random 5l chips will have 20$ each value
*** Types like ABAAC, ABACA will be at 70$ each
*** Types like AAABC will have 120$-150$
*** High End like AAAAB,ABAAA will worth 2000$

Yes above statements are purely what i think and has nothing to do with absolute truth, and i am also collecting sales data for some what accurate pricing but for now i think that has to wait another 3 months

Lets see what you guys think

Thanks.

 

[URL Enterprise]

I seem to agree with your predictions. We have already seen in the past few months that the 5 letter market is changing; it would seem for the better. I have about 70 5L domains right now.

 

[Elenka]

And what about city codes ?

 

[Flipsbay]

And what about city codes ?

They are already awesome investment

 

[HereDomainthere]

Yes looks to be interesting and fast

 

[Recons.Com]

LLLL.com chip price $2,000
Number of CHIP letters - 20
Renewal annual cost per name $8, lifetime present value (PV) $200

LLLLL.com price calculated:

(2,000 LLLL.com chip price + $200 PV renewals)/20 - $200 PV renewals = $ -90.

So the fundamentals analysis indicates that the substantiated value of 5L.com is currently negative $90.

 

[Asfas1000]

LLLL.com chip price $2,000
Number of CHIP letters - 20
Renewal annual cost per name $8, lifetime present value (PV) $200

LLLLL.com price calculated:

(2,000 LLLL.com chip price + $200 PV renewals)/20 - $200 PV renewals = $ -90.

So the fundamentals analysis indicates that the substantiated value of 5L.com is currently negative $90.

Could you explain, what is lifetime present value , and how is it calculated ? Thanks.

 

[joro001]

LLLL.com chip price $2,000
Number of CHIP letters - 20
Renewal annual cost per name $8, lifetime present value (PV) $200

LLLLL.com price calculated:

(2,000 LLLL.com chip price + $200 PV renewals)/20 - $200 PV renewals = $ -90.

So the fundamentals analysis indicates that the substantiated value of 5L.com is currently negative $90.

Maybe that explains why you can't even get reg fee here for most names despite a buyout being near and for patterns that were sold out a while ago. (I must confess I don't understand your calculations but anyway ...)

I'm invested heavily but will need to take a very long term view to 5l's.

 

[Flipsbay]

Maybe that explain why you can't even get reg fee here for most names despite a buyout being near and for patterns that were sold out a while ago.

I'm invested heavily but will need to take a very long term view to 5l's.

You can't get reg fee here just because the ones who are regging new domains they are not here at NP, we are only dealing with international buyers who doesn't have any clue on what they are doing, just based on reg stats and a few high end pattern sales NP members are investing there money.

There is something really unknown going on in this 5l market, we are looking at an emerging market that doesn't follow the rules that recons said or we are simply idiots who is part of a manipulation game.

But in any case its a very good chance to participate a newly emerging market, we all know what happens when china completes a buyout sudden 300-1000% profit in almost no time

Thanks.

 

[joro001]

You can't get reg fee here just because the ones who are regging new domains they are not here at NP, we are only dealing with international buyers who doesn't have any clue on what they are doing, just based on reg stats and a few high end pattern sales NP members are investing there money.

There is something really unknown going on in this 5l market, we are looking at an emerging market that doesn't follow the rules that recons said or we are simply idiots who is part of a manipulation game.

But in any case its a very good chance to participate a newly emerging market, we all know what happens when china completes a buyout sudden 300-1000% profit in almost no time

Thanks.

I think that even post buyout to sell in bulk here will be a very difficult task.
You're asking people on this forum to pay up huge money if you're selling in bulk and I think that won't be easy.

I guess time will tell what happens when buyout is complete.

 

[Recons.Com]

Maybe that explains why you can't even get reg fee here for most names despite a buyout being near and for patterns that were sold out a while ago. (I must confess I don't understand your calculations but anyway ...)

I'm invested heavily but will need to take a very long term view to 5l's.

Could you explain, what is lifetime present value , and how is it calculated ? Thanks.

Imagine one has $200 to invest. He is offered an investment option of 4% for year as long as he wishes. So, he'll be getting $8/year guaranteed. $200x4%=8$. Reverse of that calculation is $8/4% = $200, which means if you are offered a lifetime of revenue or expense of $8/year, that is equivalent of $200 or its (lifetime) Present Value. Why 4%? The higher the certainty of revenue/expense, the lower % rate associated with it. High certainty -> low rate. Since you are guaranteed to pay at least that, the rate for analysis has to be low.

Now, if someone pays $2000 for 4L.com chip he already factored in (even if he does not realize it) the PV of all renewals. Would he pay $2000 for 4L, if the renewal was $1000/year? Of course, no. And if he knew there is no renewals for 4L.com? He'd pay $2,200.

Now, we use widely accepted in the domain world concept that all the names of the following string should have similar value as one name of the previous string.

As there are 20 chip letters, QWRT.com would have the same value as all 20 QWRT+L.com names. But people forget here doing the adjustment for renewals.

So I use this method with the adjustment. $2,200/20=$110. That would be value of 5L if there were no renewal fees. But we already calculated that PV of .com renewals is $200. So we deduct $200 from $110 and arrive and negative value of $90.

Hope it helps )

 

[joro001]

Imagine one has $200 to invest. He is offered and investment option of 4% for year as long as he wishes. So, he'll be getting $8/year guaranteed. $200x4%=8$. Reverse of that calculation is $8/4% = $200, which means if you are offered a lifetime of revenue or expense of $8/year, that is equivalent of $200. Why 4%? The higher the certainty of revenue/expense, the lower % rate associated with it. High certainty -> low rate. Since you are guaranteed to pay at least that, the rate for analysis has to be low.

Now, if someone pays $2000 for 4L.com chip he already factored in (even if he does not realize it) the PV of all renewals. Would he pay $2000 for 4L, if the renewal was $1000/year? Of course, no. And if he knew there is no renewals for 4L.com? He'd pay $2,200.

Now, we use widely accepted in the domain world concept that all the names of the following string should have similar value as one name of the previous string.

As there are 20 chip letters, QWRT.com would have the same value as all 20 QWRT+L.com names. But people forget here doing the adjustment for renewals.

So I use this method with the adjustment. $2,200/20=$110. That would be value of 5L if there were no renewal fees. But we already calculated that PV of .com renewals is $200. So we deduct $200 from $110 and arrive and negative value of $90.

Hope it helps )

Interesting thoughts.

I am curious to see what happens post buyout, I just can't imagine buyers buying 400+ names in a go here at $30-50 each but if i'm wrong then i'll be happy with that for selfish reasons.

 

[Flipsbay]

Imagine one has $200 to invest. He is offered an investment option of 4% for year as long as he wishes. So, he'll be getting $8/year guaranteed. $200x4%=8$. Reverse of that calculation is $8/4% = $200, which means if you are offered a lifetime of revenue or expense of $8/year, that is equivalent of $200 or its (lifetime) Present Value. Why 4%? The higher the certainty of revenue/expense, the lower % rate associated with it. High certainty -> low rate. Since you are guaranteed to pay at least that, the rate for analysis has to be low.

Now, if someone pays $2000 for 4L.com chip he already factored in (even if he does not realize it) the PV of all renewals. Would he pay $2000 for 4L, if the renewal was $1000/year? Of course, no. And if he knew there is no renewals for 4L.com? He'd pay $2,200.

Now, we use widely accepted in the domain world concept that all the names of the following string should have similar value as one name of the previous string.

As there are 20 chip letters, QWRT.com would have the same value as all 20 QWRT+L.com names. But people forget here doing the adjustment for renewals.

So I use this method with the adjustment. $2,200/20=$110. That would be value of 5L if there were no renewal fees. But we already calculated that PV of .com renewals is $200. So we deduct $200 from $110 and arrive and negative value of $90.

Hope it helps )

Very well explained but its rocket science
I am sure there will be answer from chinese investors to maintain with your calculation just wait, i really don't think there is even a billionaire who would like to lose 25 million $ for nothing

 

[Recons.Com]

For 5L.com price to go to $0 from minus $90, 4L.com chip price has to go to

($0+$200)*20 - $200 = $3800.

For 5L.com price to go to $50, 4L.com chip price has to go to:

($50+$200)*20 - 200 = $4800.

So, if you are engaged in 5L.com buyout you:

- either are expecting that 4L.com price will hit $4800 within few months
- or are knowingly or unknowingly engaged in pump-and-dump scheme. If it works, you'll exit quick with some money made, if it doesn't, you are left holding trash in your portfolio.

There is no third option here.

 

[Flipsbay]

I think that even post buyout to sell in bulk here will be a very difficult task.
You're asking people on this forum to pay up huge money if you're selling in bulk and I think that won't be easy.

I guess time will tell what happens when buyout is complete.

Actually its not that hard, yes its a bit hassle but still its for those who deal with big portfolios. Many here has 10k up portfolio of names but all of them are different then one another.

But when we are talking about something like patterns on 5l simply just title your auction like 500 ABAAB pattern at auction without NPLSR or something and the buyer gets a very good idea what that portfolio can worth even if he doesn't look at all the names, but if you are that picky i am building a function that is just to solve the issue you mentioned, submit a list and that function will tell you how many AABBC,ABACD etc pattern are there and what is the base price for them and what this lot can worth based on sales data

Boom i get visitors you get your solution in a few sec

Thanks.

 

[Flipsbay]

For 5L.com price to go to $0 from minus $90, 4L.com chip price has to go to

($0+$200)*20 - $200 = $3800.

For 5L.com price to go to $50, 4L.com chip price has to go to:

($50+$200)*20 - 200 = $4800.

So, if you are engaged in 5L.com buyout you:

- either are expecting that 4L.com price will hit $4800 within few months
- or are knowingly or unknowingly engaged in pump-and-dump scheme. If it works, you'll exit quick with some money made, if it doesn't, you are left holding trash in your portfolio.

There is no third option here.

But there is no absolute thing in this world as "There is no 3rd option" yes you are quite realistic about what you are saying but still there is no absolute statement as you mentioned as "There is no 3rd option"

 

[TMarkus]

- either are expecting that 4L.com price will hit $4800 within few months

Why do you think it is impossible?

 

[Recons.Com]

Why do you think it is impossible?

Well, primarily because of my educational background. In financial world, you assume that the current market price reflects all future expectations as well. So the current price reflects the possibility of 4L.com chips going to $4800. As well as falling to $1,200, for example.

But, let's say your expectations are different from the market and you are more bullish. So why don't you then register 4L.com chips if you expect them to go up by 140% in few months? Great way to increase your money to by 2.4x, right?

 

[Flipsbay]

For 5L.com price to go to $0 from minus $90, 4L.com chip price has to go to

($0+$200)*20 - $200 = $3800.

For 5L.com price to go to $50, 4L.com chip price has to go to:

($50+$200)*20 - 200 = $4800.

So, if you are engaged in 5L.com buyout you:

- either are expecting that 4L.com price will hit $4800 within few months
- or are knowingly or unknowingly engaged in pump-and-dump scheme. If it works, you'll exit quick with some money made, if it doesn't, you are left holding trash in your portfolio.

There is no third option here.

For example think about bitcoin, it was nothing back when the internet started, people took it to a level that it became online currency, if domain is going to the same path 50$ or even 300$ each is not a big deal, and hey i just made your 3rd option

 

[Recons.Com]

So, 5L.com is now a currency and is similar to bitcoin? Tell me, what is the renewal fee on $50 "bill" of bitcoin?

 

[Flipsbay]

So, 5L.com is now a currency and is similar to bitcoin? Tell me, what is the renewal fee on $50 "bill" of bitcoin?

lol i was just giving you a 3rd option , if it looks stupid then our investment is stupid mate

Thanks.

 

[Recons.Com]

lol i was just giving you a 3rd option , if it looks stupid then our investment is stupid mate

Thanks.

Sorry, did not mean that. And am not trying to spoil your investment. Just want to make sure that you guys realize that it is risky proposition based on many things working in your favor. Don't base your decision on, e.g., LLLL.net buyout returns. The investment has many red flags all over it, but it might turn out to be high risk -> high reward, if you manage to sell for $50 what you bought for $5-8 per name within a year.

Your bet might be based on this:

- Invest $1000 and buy 200 5L.coms
- 85% chance that I will get around $0
- 15% chance I will get $10,000 for it.

85%x0+15%*10,000=$1,500, net profit of $500.

Now, this is very simplistic, and there are not 2 discreet possible outcomes, % are made up, although they do reflect that there is bigger chance of bust, but if it is based on analysis like this, fine. You still end up making $500.

But I would still recommend buying 3 decent good quality LLLL.coms for $1k, you'd probably make still around $500 with much less stress and downside.

 

[Asfas1000]

Recons, thank you for your detailed analysis. I couldn't find a hole, but ...it can't be valid IMO
I mean, if the LLLLL.com value is at $110, the $8 renewal is a small % only..
Hmmmm checking checking

 

[Asfas1000]

OK here is why I believe the parallelism to the PV value is not perfect :

As you put it, buying a 5L.com is like having a -$200 liability, due to the renewals.
However, unlike a bank who is obliged to pay the 4% rate, you can stop renewing, and limit your liability to $8 or $16 etc.
This is your decision, not the registry's

So if you decide it doesn't work, you can exit....what do you think ?

 

[TMarkus]

In financial world, you assume that the current market price reflects all future expectations as well.

You are right if you are talking about real world assets with real company cash flow.

But if you are talk about assets like domains.... 4L.com may easy go to 4-5K levels within 2-3 weeks ))