When other extensions such as .movie gain acceptance, DOT COM automatically loses in value. It already has lost value because domainers are increasingly spending money elsewhere.
What stats is this based on? Namejet is selling almost no gtlds. Some domainers have jumped in this new market as it offers new opportunites. Nothing wrong with that.
Consumers are increasingly going elsewhere.
Stats?
We have 335 new gtld websites the Alexa top 100k. So about 0.3% of consumers are going to the ngtlds. In reality it is probably less since almost none of them are high traffic websites. So you may have 0.1% of consumers going elsewhere.
By the end of the year google will start using .google, that's when things will get really interesting when all the corporations start using new gTLDS such as .apple, .microsoft, .google, .oracle ..
They have also used .ws names. Using them doesn't mean that they will redirect to key.word instead of their man keyword.com brand
We're already seeing early-adopters paying huge premiums for names such as commercial.property. Why? Because they believe in a major shift.
We really don't know the motivation behind the purchases. I think .mobi had more six figure sales than the new gtlds so far.
There will always be purchases like that. Someone paid 500k for pussy.xxx a few years back. Why? I don't know they probably had a lot of cash and i didn't mind paying a lot of money.
I think commercial.property was 25k. Look at other 25k Namedia sales in the past. They often sell shit for that price.
The .com would have been priced at 250-500k
At one point, google will have to factor in different extensions. New search engines may come into existence that focus solely on the new extensions and will put more weight on .villas, .blogs, .insurance, .sales, .news.
A search engine that will solely focus on .keyword domains wouldn't make much sense. Only a very small percentage of internet users would ever use a search engine that excludes +99% of all content worldwide. Even if the gtlds had a substantial portion of all content worldwide i wouldn't really see any benefit in excluding .com and cctlds from the results. How would that help? Why would one do this or want this?
Then a major shift really could happen. What we could see then is that certain extensions will become the go-to domain for that specific industry because the companies behind that industry realize they will increase traffic and sales by adopting new extensions
.
How can we know that they will increase traffic and sales? Any stats? Most internet users don't understand the new extensions. If you advertise today you will lose a lot of money and traffic.
So far we know that o.co was a major failure and harmed traffic and sales.
When that happens DOT COM is done because consumers by then recognize .insurance, .apartments, .condos and trust those extensions as much as they trusted DOT COM once. We will see a lot more gTLD sales then because companies are willing to pay for it because they can get a return on their investment.
Trust comes from exposure. How many times have people used .com and how many times have they used ngtlds?
All of this is just speculation, but the chances are good that it happens. Billions of dollar have been invested into this by corporations and small businesses alike. They all want to see a return. So Google, MSFT, Yandex, DDG have to bow to the will of the industry and eventually will change.
I am not so sure that they have invested billions. Google one of the biggest companies on earth with loads of cash to spend was reluctant to spend more than a few millions and lost auctions. They could have easily bought any string they wanted to but choose not to. How much cash did Microsoft or Yandex spend? Not that much i think.
If they had major plans they could have bought all extensions and launch their own internet. Google is spending so much cash on various projects nowadays. This doesn't seem to be a high priority thing for them.
How many billions have been spent on branding .com websites in the past 15 years? Why would companies give up their .com brands and how could the spending spending on .com brands even be compared to the ngtlds or made undone with a few ad campaigns?