.mobi LLL.mobi Possible-Buyout

[Archangel]

Everyone knows that the LLL.mobi sold out long ago but eventually, many owners let their domains drop. I made a list a few days ago showing the available LLL.mobi domains and I'm a tad surprised.

There are 18,928 possible LLL combinations. When I complied the list, there were 1,984 LLL's available. But a decent amount were regged from then til now. So I'm thinking that since .mobi is still pretty new and many companies will surely develop more mobile-friendly websites, there could be another LLL.mobi buyout. I have no idea if it'll stay but I do foresee a buyout sometime soon.

GoDaddy is having a $7.99 (or so) .mobi special and several other registrars are having sales, too. I think it would be wise to pick up a few LLL's now for future investments. Even if LLL.mobis fail to turn a decent profit, you'll only be losing your reg fees. For those interested, here is a list of all LLL.mobis available right now. I'll try to keep this list updated. Reps are always appreciated

What is your opinion of LLL.mobi? Do you think ppl should take this small gamble? Anyway, here is the list as of Sunday May 31th 2009:

BUYOUT!

0 domains!
(5/31/09)

(1,984 were available around 3/1/09)
(1,943 were available on 3/6/09)
(1,916 were available on 3/11/09)
(1,865 were available on 3/26/09)
(1,294 were available on 4/22/09)
(1,267 were available on 4/28/09)
(1,254 were available on 5/11/09)

 

[kwok]

Nice list, reps added

I see some decent acronyms in here. FWV could easily be a site based in West Virginia (W VA but technically, the abb is WV). I might reg a few of these after all. I got BGX.mobi seeing that it has good acronym potential.

Thanks for the reps. It is truly appreciated.

 

[snoop]

I've been scanning drop lists a lot lately & noticed that every single LLLL.com that dropeed was picked up shortly after. And LLLL.com's, minus the quad premiums and VCVC/CVCV variants are near worthless these days. So there is a chance that ppl might take the LLL.mobi drops if the vast majority of them are regged. I don't foresee the drops being too much of a problem.

I guess the key difference with LLLL.com is "near worthless" rather than just "worthless".

The LLLL.com situation is quite difference because confidence in that market is significantly higher than .mobi. There is at least some degree of enduser demand for higher quality names and a significantly larger number of participants compared to the LLL.mobi market. Having said that lately (in the last couple of days) some LLLL.com's have taken 2 hours to get reregistered, personally I think that buyout is not as "iron clad" as I thought previously.

there will be zero LLL.mobi drops for about 5 more months. around that time, the Sunrise TM regs will start to drop.. but there will be very very few of those. there were less than 50 last year. it will be at least 9 months before any LLL.mobi can start to drop in big numbers. these will be from landrush... and if the buyout hasnt completed by then, people will really really start to drop their LLL.mobi. as i mentioned a few posts back - the only reason LLL.mobi didnt drop in huge numbers last year is because the buyout still held when landrush renewals came along... this is when the large bulk of LLL.mobi's were registered.

Thanks for the info.

 

[mjnels]

well, although in general .COM has a much much much higher usage/end user demand... there are only 17,576 possible 3 letter domains as compared to 4 letter domains..... and even .BIZ and .INFO 3 letter domains are all sold out.

itll happen with .mobi again eventually... however i originally predicted around 1 month and i was dead wrong! but others were much more optimistic than me predicting a few days or a few weeks within the day the buyout was broken.

i honestly cant even make a realistic prediction at this point... anything could happen including no buyout at all until 2010... hell maybe even 2011.

 

[snoop]

well, although in general .COM has a much much much higher usage/end user demand... there are only 17,576 possible 3 letter domains as compared to 4 letter domains..... and even .BIZ and .INFO 3 letter domains are all sold out.

In my view the level of enduser demand for LLLL.com is much more than 26 times the demand for LLL.mobi.

 

[mjnels]

In my view the level of enduser demand for LLLL.com is much more than 26 times the demand for LLL.mobi.

probably true, or not far off.

the ideal situation for a LLL.mobi buyout would be for around maybe 500 to be available very close to the landrush renewal date (Sept. 26th) and THEN have an individual do a buyout.

in that situation, the landrush drops would likely get picked up immediately by others (or not dropped at all) and a few months after that (if all goes as planned) you could flip most of em and recover your funds... while at the same time spreading out the amount of people that own them. im not sure how profitable this would actually be though.. almost sounds like more trouble than its worth - which is why they're still sitting available.

 

[Archangel]

well, although in general .COM has a much much much higher usage/end user demand... there are only 17,576 possible 3 letter domains as compared to 4 letter domains..... and even .BIZ and .INFO 3 letter domains are all sold out.

itll happen with .mobi again eventually... however i originally predicted around 1 month and i was dead wrong! but others were much more optimistic than me predicting a few days or a few weeks within the day the buyout was broken.

i honestly cant even make a realistic prediction at this point... anything could happen including no buyout at all until 2010... hell maybe even 2011.

With all of this in mind, do you think owning a few LLL.mobi's is a bad choice? I'm prepared to renew up to 3 years if needed. I can cough up about $15 a year. I'm an experiened domainer. I can afford to piss away $15.

 

[snoop]

With all of this in mind, do you think owning a few LLL.mobi's is a bad choice? I'm prepared to renew up to 3 years if needed. I can cough up about $15 a year. I'm an experiened domainer. I can afford to piss away $15.

Well you just said before it would be a good idea if someone bought out the lot and you've already said it would be a idea idea if people bought a few each about 10 times in this thread.

In reality it is a gamble and you could make this argument about anything you like

..............buy a little AIG stock, it is only 35 cents per share, what is to lose?....

The potential loss is everything you put in, and most people probably won't invest an amount that is insignificant to them because in that case the potential gain is likely insignificant as well. Generally people will invest an amount that is meaningful to them.

 

[Archangel]

Apologies if I sound repetitious. I'm trying to get more feedback on this issue -- if a small investment like this seems worth the hassle. So far, some ppl seem to think it's a good idea and some are reluctant. That's kinda what I assumed since not everything is one-sided. (Almost everyone hated Bush, it seems, but he still had some supporters)

Well you just said before it would be a good idea if someone bought out the lot and you've already said it would be a idea idea if people bought a few each about 10 times in this thread.

In reality it is a gamble and you could make this argument about anything you like

..............buy a little AIG stock, it is only 35 cents per share, what is to lose?....

The potential loss is everything you put in, and most people probably won't invest an amount that is insignificant to them because in that case the potential gain is likely insignificant as well. Generally people will invest an amount that is meaningful to them.

 

[mjnels]

small investments are cool and will actually make the buyout more sustainable. im not saying you'll make money with em... but if the registrations are stretched out for a long enough period of time, the buyout will hold.. even if you drop em the next year.

but in a larger sense, i liked how snoop put it earlier - throwing on top of the bonfire... cause for now, thats what it is. ill be watching this LLL.mobi situation closely though.

 

[Archangel]

Good point, reps added
I've never really felt that it'd be a smart idea to own hundreds of these at this point (but if I had beaucoup money, buying them out wouldn't be a bad idea, I don't think). I'll be happy with my 2 for now & pick up a few more later if it seems feasible. And of course I'll try to keep this thread updated.

small investments are cool and will actually make the buyout more sustainable. im not saying you'll make money with em... but if the registrations are stretched out for a long enough period of time, the buyout will hold.. even if you drop em the next year.

but in a larger sense, i liked how snoop put it earlier - throwing on top of the bonfire... cause for now, thats what it is. ill be watching this LLL.mobi situation closely though.

 

[scandiman]

but, i just know that if even the lowest quality LLL.mobi are still sitting available for reg-fee this year when the landrush drops happen that every single LLL wont get picked up on the drop... and this could lead to HUGE landrush drops.

Why would the fact that crap LLL are not registered compel me or anyone else to drop landrush names? "OMG, KJF.mobi isn't regged, I guess I should drop Reno, Waikiki, Spokane, HiltonHead, Gaming and all the rest."(NOT!) I simply don't understand all this fixation on crap LLL.

 

[mjnels]

Why would the fact that crap LLL are not registered compel me or anyone else to drop landrush names? "OMG, KJF.mobi isn't regged, I guess I should drop Reno, Waikiki, Spokane, HiltonHead, Gaming and all the rest."(NOT!) I simply don't understand all this fixation on crap LLL.

i meant to say could lead to HUGE landrush LLL.mobi drops...

and this is true because speculators own most of the LLL anyway and a majority will base their decision to renew another year on whether they are all sold out. just to be clear, every time i've mentioned "landrush drops" in this thread i was referring only to LLL.mobi

but its certainly possible for a lot more generics to drop this year again - wouldnt have anything to do with the LLL.mobi situation though..

 

[scandiman]

i meant to say could lead to HUGE landrush LLL.mobi drops...

OK, that's different. Were a lot of random junk LLL picked up in landrush though?

 

[mjnels]

OK, that's different. Were a lot of random junk LLL picked up in landrush though?

i'd imagine the "better quality" ones were mostly registered then... and im sure quality plays a role when determining to renew/drop but i think the biggest factor overall (to speculators) is whether all other LLL.mobi are sold out. especially since reseller prices are way way down from what they were. just a gut feeling based on what happened this time around..

 

[scandiman]

i'd imagine the "better quality" ones were mostly registered then... and im sure quality plays a role when determining to renew/drop but i think the biggest factor overall (to speculators) is whether all other LLL.mobi are sold out. especially since reseller prices are way way down from what they were. just a gut feeling based on what happened this time around..

Quality is the biggest determiner for me, what other people have reged or not is irrelevant, but then I'm not the typical speculator either. For those who mainly sell to speculators it makes sense to care, but since random LLL isn't my game anyway I could care less TBH other than being one measure of domain speculator interest in the extension.

 

[colombani]

Since january 2009 I sold 5 lll.mobi to end users (private sale), each between $1500-$3000.
Every buyer contacted me directly using email after finding me in whois.

 

[Archangel]

Updated: These were taken
EQS.MOBI
EQX.MOBI
FVW.MOBI
HZL.MOBI
KYN.MOBI
KZT.MOBI
LTZ.MOBI
MZO.MOBI
NCQ.MOBI
PJR.MOBI
QMJ.MOBI
RIY.MOBI
SQJ.MOBI
TCX.MOBI
TJQ.MOBI
TUQ.MOBI
TYX.MOBI
TZO.MOBI
UCJ.MOBI
VKF.MOBI
VTW.MOBI
VXO.MOBI
WZS.MOBI
XMI.MOBI
YBK.MOBI
YGT.MOBI
ZBN.MOBI
ZHM.MOBI
ZWT.MOBI

There appears to be some kind of an error, possibly on my part. The official number dropped around 400-500 or so in a few days... this couldn't be. Could someone scan the list over? I think I messed up somehow

 

[Archangel]

I fixed the error and rescanned the entire list. There are 1,916 LLL.mobi domains. 1,984 were avail around 3/1/09. They aren't being gobbled up but it seems that people are taking an interest in them. At this rate, it'll still take awhile to sell out.

I recall long ago when you could hang-reg a CCC.com and I just passed it up. Everyone said they were a waste of money. And now look at them. They're not million-dollar domains but they can fetch ya at least $100-150 these days. The same went with all LLLL.coms (until the bubble busted). I'm gonna hold onto my 2 and probably take a few others. I know I've mentioned that a lot in this thread but I really do see a possible wave coming along in the future. And I'll be double-damned if I let this one go by

 

[snoop]

I recall long ago when you could hang-reg a CCC.com and I just passed it up. Everyone said they were a waste of money. And now look at them. They're not million-dollar domains but they can fetch ya at least $100-150 these days. The same went with all LLLL.coms (until the bubble busted). I'm gonna hold onto my 2 and probably take a few others. I know I've mentioned that a lot in this thread but I really do see a possible wave coming along in the future. And I'll be double-damned if I let this one go by

It is tired argument, "YYYY category has done well, therefore XXXX should do well".

I doubt "everyone" said CCC.com were a waste of money, probably some did though. That isn't to say to history will repeat for every category you can think of, CCC.com and LLLL.com makes a heck of a lot more sense than LLL.mobi to me.

Even with LLLL.com, the first buyout collapsed (2000-2001). If you'd bought low quality ones when they became available again (I think 2001-2002), you still have names that are basically worthless today.

 

[Archangel]

I don't think there's any arguement over it. CCC.com were reg fee many years back but are worth a decent amount today. Does that mean LLL.mobi will follow suit? Nah. It means that it MIGHT, not that it WILL. But in the case that it happens, I wanna be prepared with a few decent LLL. Even you, snoop, would have loved to get your hands on some LLL.net earlier (if you hadn't, that is). I recall a thread around 2003 or so that had LLL.nets selling for about $65 each. BUT yeah, with that thinking, LLL.mobi might not be worth $2,000 each anytime soon, maybe not for 5-8 years perhaps.

But okay, with that thinking: I'd risk owning 10 LLL.mobis and renewing them each 5 years if they wind up turning $1,000 profit each. The simple math: Assuming regging/renewing was a flat $10, then it'd cost $50 a domain total. Subtract $50 from $1,000 and there's your profit.

I'm not saying these will ever hit that mark but then again, I don't know. You don't know, snoop. No one reading this thread knows. No one knows what the next 5 years will bring. All we can do is speculate, which is all I'm doing.

It is tired argument, "YYYY category has done well, therefore XXXX should do well".

I doubt "everyone" said CCC.com were a waste of money, probably some did though. That isn't to say to history will repeat for every category you can think of, CCC.com and LLLL.com makes a heck of a lot more sense than LLL.mobi to me.

Even with LLLL.com, the first buyout collapsed (2000-2001). If you'd bought low quality ones when they became available again (I think 2001-2002), you still have names that are basically worthless today.

NLP.mobi sold for $5,500 at SEDO in January. And there must have been 2k LLL.mobis available at that time. Good letters, great price.

 

[snoop]

I don't think there's any arguement over it. CCC.com were reg fee many years back but are worth a decent amount today. Does that mean LLL.mobi will follow suit? Nah. It means that it MIGHT, not that it WILL. But in the case that it happens, I wanna be prepared with a few decent LLL. Even you, snoop, would have loved to get your hands on some LLL.net earlier (if you hadn't, that is). I recall a thread around 2003 or so that had LLL.nets selling for about $65 each. BUT yeah, with that thinking, LLL.mobi might not be worth $2,000 each anytime soon, maybe not for 5-8 years perhaps.

Personally if I could go back in the time machine I would still not buy LLL.net's. The people who got them for $65 each have maybe made 3X-4X their money after reg fees. That is over a time when the industry as whole went crazy, whilst it is a good gain in isolation I would say it is lower than the market average, firstly because of the level on reg fees in comparison to the names value and secondly because these names have pretty much no revenue.

For something like an LLL.net to actually keep paying those reg fees with no actual ROI over that time (other than by selling) would have been hard. How many people do you know of who got rich by speculating in LLL.net? The industry had a massive boom and I still don't know of anyone.

But okay, with that thinking: I'd risk owning 10 LLL.mobis and renewing them each 5 years if they wind up turning $1,000 profit each. The simple math: Assuming regging/renewing was a flat $10, then it'd cost $50 a domain total. Subtract $50 from $1,000 and there's your profit.

This isn't just "simple math" it is "fantasy math", good luck with it.

I'm not saying these will ever hit that mark but then again, I don't know. You don't know, snoop. No one reading this thread knows. No one knows what the next 5 years will bring. All we can do is speculate, which is all I'm doing.

Personally I think they are a very bad bet considering how .mobi is shaping up generally (in terms of usage).

NLP.mobi sold for $5,500 at SEDO in January. And there must have been 2k LLL.mobis available at that time. Good letters, great price.

How many names like NLP.mobi haven't sold? Need to look at the entire market not just one lucky sale.

 

[thinkingagain]

VIP.MOBI
$10,099
GreatDomains.com

 

[labrocca]

I would prefer a slower sellout this time. If it does happen in say a year it's more likely the people holding them might not be resellers making the existing ones more difficult to grab. On a positive note people are still talking about mobi...no such thing as bad publicity as they say. I grabbed a few, 7 to be exact and if I can sell one next year for $100 I am even. If not I fork out $50 a year for 2-3 years and see where the market is headed. I spend $50-$100 in 30 minutes at the casino...I think my odds might not be any worse with mobi.

There are lots of reasons to be bearish on mobi but let's be frank...it's been beaten down pretty far (reg fee) and maybe it deserves it and maybe it doesn't.

 

[acc]

All this talk about LLL sellouts is just a myopic domainer thing and doesn't mean all that much in the big scheme of things. No matter what the extension, end users (where the real sales are made) don't know or care about any other domain other than the one they come to you for (via whois or online listing or that you introduce and present to them via proactive marketing).

The better and more often used the letters, the larger the potential universe of application there is for an acronym and hence the better chance of a decent sale. Buying the last mostly unwanted letter combo names in any LLL or LLLL "domainer buyout" is a low odds bet subject to greater domainer-activity related fluctuation.

Having a number of LLLs gives better odds that someone will be looking for one of them. If the selling price covers the reg fees for the rest of your LLL holdings then you are doing well to start, and everything after that is gravy. Actively finding potential end users wil increase the success rate but it seems that most domainers do not bother to do the legwork. Even if one does the research finding potential end users for all the X,Y,Z,K LLLs it is an uphill battle.

If one wants to think in terms of buyouts, you should consider "best letter" buyouts and then the remaining "junk" letter buyout names as a separate group.
.

 

[Archangel]

If one wants to think in terms of buyouts, you should consider "best letter" buyouts and then the remaining "junk" letter buyout names as a separate group.
.

I think the best odds are pretty much what you suggest, a "best letter" buyout. Who'd reg the crappy letters? That's the hard thing: Getting the worst letters regged. My only real assumption is once all that left are crappy letter LLL's they'll sit awhile but after the rest become untouchable (meaning they're in developement & the owners won't sell -- or an investor refuses to sell, holding om for a bigger sale) ppl will start regging the worst letters. But the question remains whether they'll hold these for a long time and if they let them drop, whether they'll be snatched up shortly after.

Personally if I could go back in the time machine I would still not buy LLL.net's. The people who got them for $65 each have maybe made 3X-4X their money after reg fees. That is over a time when the industry as whole went crazy, whilst it is a good gain in isolation I would say it is lower than the market average, firstly because of the level on reg fees in comparison to the names value and secondly because these names have pretty much no revenue.

For something like an LLL.net to actually keep paying those reg fees with no actual ROI over that time (other than by selling) would have been hard. How many people do you know of who got rich by speculating in LLL.net? The industry had a massive boom and I still don't know of anyone.

"Fantasy" math and logical math are different things but I'm not quite sure which you are going by. Assuming you bought a decent LLL.net for $60 in 2002 and held it all these years, renewing at $10 a year, your total investment would be a little over $100. LLL.net sells pretty damn well these days and will likely sell better after this recession. If I had the cash (that's always a factor), I'd have picked up 20 or so. Sure, I might have spent $150-200 a year in renewals but I could sell the lot for $20k rather easily these days. Perhaps you wouldn't have done it but smart investors with cash to invest would have. And ppl like me, who seldom get thousands of dollars at a time, the same.

How many names like NLP.mobi haven't sold? Need to look at the entire market not just one lucky sale.

Yet again, you missed my point. I was pointing out that there HAVE BEEN good sales of non-word LLL.mobi even though there are still a lot left in the pool of unregged LLL's. I need to look at the whole market, as you said, but I'm not foolish enough to base a sales decision on 1 sale. I'm a professional. I'm not that stupid and lord help those who are. You need to look at what is POSSIBLE, not what you personally expect.