news That Frank Schilling Prediction about dot COM Was WRONG, Surprised?

[sumosan]

Frank Schilling made a bad decision early (before the new gTLDs even launched) to abandon his core constituency and join other new gTLD hucksters--registry operators--as well as some current and former ICANN Directors, Officers and staff, and other fellow travellers, in utilizing a new gTLD marketing strategy of going negative against the legacy gTLDs, particularly the market dominant .COM.

It didn't work.

Read more: http://www.domainmondo.com/2015/12/that-frank-schilling-prediction-about.html

What do you think?

 

[RU]

Domains aren't like a library -nobody needs them to "organize" the internet. They're more like license plates for your car. Nice to have vanity plates, but nobody really NEEDS them - you can still drive around with any combination of numbers and letters that is legal. Your car will even run fine without any (ip address)

The issue that will kill most of the new gtlds is lack of buy in from the public, and with the niche gtlds, from the small group they target. Most people outside of this business:

1. Have no clue these gtlds exist.
2. If they have seen marketing at a registrar, they probably ignored it as some tech blah blah blah
3. They have experienced spam and phishing from domains that look "funny" and are wary. (Ask overstock.com how o.co and o.biz are working out for them)
4. From a marketing standpoint, the sheer number of them is a deterrent. If you present people in the decision process with too many choices, they will take none of them.

There's not enough consumer oriented marketing to build any desire, fabricate a need, or override the trust issues . Registries seem perfectly content to have domainers and defensive registrations footing the bills.

Hence, .com is alive and well.

.museum, .travel., .tel ...fail, fail and fail.

.travel fail ? I disagree with you.

 

[4pm]

.travel fail ? I disagree with you.

..based on what?

with around 20,000 registered domains and 25 reported sales in 10 years (delegated in 2005) would you call it successful, really?

 

[SpareDomains]

I think there's a chance for money to be made if you pick the right extension and the right keyword or right keyword hack. Problem is I've seen some domainer's lists and their registering these with longtails like they are .com with 2-3+ keywords on an extension that doesn't hack with the keywords.

Think it will pan out as usual...

Registry gets rich
small percentage of domainers make a nice profit margin by sticking to single keyword or 1-2 word extension hacks
majority of domainers lose as they invested in second tier names and the combo of a second tier name on a second tier extension doesn't usually pan out

Personally I'm old school and own (1) .Domains domain because it's a hack and redirects to one of my developed .com domain sales sites. If I were to expand (which is unlikely) past my (1) .Domains domain I'd be targeting dead on keyword hacks and make it a percentage of my investment and not the majority.

If you register one of these and make 100k+ more power to ya no jealousy here. I'm just standing very well in .Com assets so I don't really need to touch alternatives unless a domain presents itself at the right price that even Captain Obvious would buy. For those longtailing any random extension Lucky Charms for breakfast might not be a bad idea.

99%+ of the domains I've had end user buyers come for in the last 14 years were .Com and the few that strayed most came back for the .Com at a later date. Which is kinda common based on talking to other domain sellers/domain brokers along with reading articles as well...

http://www.domaininvesting.com/namescon-2016-sponsor-spotlight-on-igloo-com/

"What are your thoughts on the new TLDs?

The release of new TLDs definitely opens up the door for more investors, but for the time being it still is a cause for confusion among the general public. For the aftermarket business, this allows for more affordable inventory, but it also instills a sense of .com’s dominant presence. While startups might not want to invest in a .com initially, they do tend to come back for it once their business plan is proven. We regularly deal with clients who bought or registered new gTLDS when launching their business or product and are now contacting us for .com acquisitions leading me to remain confident in the value of premium .com domain names."

Will this shift over time? Anything is possible but I feel confident in my .Com investments in the $8 year range and think .Com will be the top extension until I'm dead so increased holding costs on alternate extensions doesn't make sense in my position. If I was 20 years old then maybe I'd be more open to dabble in some longshots.

 

[enlytend]

.travel fail ? I disagree with you.

Total # of indexed pages for all sites using .travel - 98,600,000

Which is more than .biz (larger sites? Travel sites usually have tons of destination / accomodation pages), but even .info has close to 2 billion.

 

[RU]

white cat - new gtld domain investor
grey cat - old .com domainer

 

[Kate]

---------------------
I want a Mercedes. That isn't the point. Very few companies will become large enough to afford a domain for $XXX,XXX++ OR by the time they can, they have already branded their original domain.

Typical domain sales are low 4 figures and even less than that. Domain names are NOT overpriced assets at all. They are overpriced for individuals maybe, but not for normal, profit-making businesses.
The domains that sell for 6 figures are usually premium generics and the occasional fluke.

I wonder if FS is really sincere, but domainers must always keep in mind that he's in a very particular position. He sells gTLDs. He holds a licence to print money. He can make a profit because he's on top of the food chain.

There is still room for growth in ccTLDs, so my strategy has always been to stick to .com + a healthy dose of .net .org AND mature ccTLDs.
Vanity and exotic extensions make sales too unpredictable.

It's never to late to catch the train. It's often preferable to be a fast second rather than the first mover. Let the other people take a stab first. Sit back and watch.

We are living in a new paradigm where voice search will become the norm. There will not be type in traffic. No one is going to remember the extension when Google has hundreds of choices when you want flowers. ???. HOW they are going to handle it is anyone guess.

Twenty years ago, you could read on SEO forums that domain names would become unimportant because navigation takes place through search engines. The people making those statements all missed the boat. This is pretty serious when you pretend to be a SEO expert but don't understand domain names. This kind of flawed thinking is still widespread. Fact is, few people get it, and this is part of the reason why masses are not ready to embrace new extensions.

Remember Myspace? I do, it practically ruled the internet world as we know it, now its nothing but a distant memory.
...
.com is king now, no doubt, but its bound to be replaced by a more relevant version, why is com relevant when it means nothing?

Websites come and go, but they still run on .com and HTTP + TCP/IP. Domain names are Internet infrastructure, so this part of the Internet is very stable and moves very slowly. But domain names are also essential for branding, and national pride/identity when it comes to ccTLDs. So I can tell you ccTLDs are very relevant Definitely more relevant that the jTLDs (joke TLDs) that icann is releasing in April fool's day mode.

Remember....history always repeats itself.

I can only emphasize this. I've been telling this for years and years. But I know I sound like a broken record. We are here to sell domains, so wishful thinking is not a valid business model.

I am a firm believer that anything can be sold.

Seriously ? You have to make your time worthwhile too.
If domaining was so easy everybody would be doing it. It is tragic that some domainers are trying to sell their new gTLDs but the vast majority of end users do not even comprehend the nature of the product being pitched.

 

[SpareDomains]

Show attachment 21521
white cat - new gtld domain investor
grey cat - old .com domainer

 

[DnEbook]

I had about ten New Gtlds. At this point the holding costs are too high, I expect to only keep three ...begrudgingly

 

[serryjw]

I had about ten New Gtlds. At this point the holding costs are too high, I expect to only keep three ...begrudgingly

------------------------- Unfortunately, that is a big issue for most domainers. It is cheaper to take a one word .com ( taken) and make it a 2 word .com (not taken) than hand reg one of the new extensions. The carrying cost for 5-10 years will be 5-10 as much with little history of prior success.

 

[DnEbook]

I gotta go with what is working at the moment, my few gtlds are probably more "vanity names" at this point

 

[80-20]

Wise words about the value of the (expert) predictions (just published on TechCrunch

We're All Probably Wrong

Seed slump! Unicorns dying! War over water! The end of the world! The ice caps melting! Look: we’re smart animals even though we seem mostly dumb. I am a techno-optimist: I believe technology is the engine of positive change.

We are coming upon a number of “horse manure moments.” What does that mean? Back when horses wandered city streets, major cities were about to be engulfed.
In 1894, the Times of London estimated that by 1950 every street in the city would be buried nine feet deep in horse manure.
One New York prognosticator of the 1890s concluded that by 1930 the horse droppings would rise to Manhattan’s third-story windows.

What happened? The car appeared and made the horse manure problem go away overnight. We will hurt ourselves until we fix ourselves. It has always been thus.

 

[TRY]

I have a request...

Can someone please explain why the three letters "com" (which isn't even a real word, btw) makes a domain so valuable. Please try and do so without referencing its familiarity to the everyday internet user.

Thanks,

Because it is very limited supply, there are more companies that go by lll than All lll.com's available. Supply and demand.

 

[William V]

Frank may have been optimistic in his time frame but he's on the right track.

 

[Grego85]

just to clarify what I meant in my earlier post:

I am asking what is so special about the the 3 letters "com" as an extension (other than familiarity). Not 3 letter .com domain names.

 

[offersity]

just to clarify what I meant in my earlier post:

I am asking what is so special about the the 3 letters "com" as an extension (other than familiarity). Not 3 letter .com domain names.

It has become the Mercedes Benz of the domain world I guess. It is the perception side of it.

 

[JayJay]

I am asking what is so special about the the 3 letters "com" as an extension (other than familiarity).

No other reason imo, familiarity is enough of a reason that no other reasons are needed. Let me know when end user sales for non .coms start taking over the weekly top sales reports (not counting registry sales). I wont hold my breath.

 

[offersity]

No other reason imo, familiarity is enough of a reason that no other reasons are needed. Let me know when end user sales for non .coms start taking over the weekly top sales reports (not counting registry sales). I wont hold my breath.

This

 

[Silentptnr]

okay, so yes....if I am looking at 2 EXACT same domain names, one .com and another .whatever, and both are dropping, and I can only afford to keep one, it's always going to be the .com.

 

[disaac81]

All you gtld lovers seem to forget history.

.net came along and loads of people said yeah it's the new king.

Well that did not happen.

Add frankly, the only new gtld that has a chance to be like .net is .web, and .net is a world away from .com (about 80-90% in value). So use your brains, .com is .com, period.

Just concentrate on your own investments and stop trying to spread useless info.

 

[garptrader]

On Ricksblog.com, Frank predicts that by the fifth year after the launch of new TLDs, there will be 50 million new TLD registrations. He then predicts that by year ten there will be more non .COM domains than .COM. CCTLDs are gaining ground but I believe the new TLDs at some point will start to stagnate - unless there is a seismic shift in the way domain names are viewed by end users - as great tools for promoting a business' products and services. However, in recent years I have continually been baffled by the disinterest among end users in spending any real money on a domain name. They have a poor-quality handreg .COM or possibly .Net and have no interest in spending more than $50 on a better domain. As a financial professional, I am well aware of the expenditures of small and large companies - $5k for a domain is really not that much money given what companies spend on other normal business expenses - advertising, professional services, travel, etc. So if I start seeing personal domain sales of $XXXX on a regular basis then I will know that end user mentality has shifted. At that point, yes new TLDs may blossom. But when end users balk at spending low $XXX for a relevant .COM, we are not there yet.

 

[Silentptnr]

End-Users simply won't have much choice to use extensions other than .com, and soon, will mostly purchase aftermarket domains from domain investors.

Like any other industry, domain names were and are daily, purchased by us domain investors like any other commodity. Now, in most cases, "end users" have to either buy aftermarket domain and pay premium, or go with another extension.

Domain name real estate gets snatched up so quickly, even investors can't get them fast enough from other investors.

I don't call it sad, I don't call it squatting. I call it cyber real estate investing in a capitalist market. As the years go on, I predict most ALL domain names will be aftermarket domains purchased at premium aftermarket prices.

 

[stimpi777]

Life is a dance you learn as you go - It would be silly not to diversify in Dot china
But there again As NVDomains states (along with limited money resources)

 

[jmcc]

All you gtld lovers seem to forget history.

.net came along and loads of people said yeah it's the new king.

Perhaps you mean .info or .biz rather than .net. The .NET has been around since 1985 (as has .COM). Initially it was to be used for ISP and network purposes.

Add frankly, the only new gtld that has a chance to be like .net is .web, and .net is a world away from .com (about 80-90% in value). So use your brains, .com is .com, period.

The .web is a problematic one because there's no switching bonus to enourage existing .COM users or .ccTLD users to switch. It is just another generic. Even the .COM is changing but most people don't realise it. It is the top Global TLD but at a local level outside countries like the US, it is beginning to become a legacy TLD where the main growth is shifting to the local ccTLD.

Most of these new gTLDs are more like ccTLDs than generic TLDs. This is something that a lot of domainers are missing when trying to evaluate them using .COM investment rules.

Regards...jmcc

 

[iAchilles]

The price of premium ngtlds, is too damn high. Much of the pricing structures have done nothing but stump the growth of the market. 1.5k-50k per year for renewals is criminal and all it does is push end users back to the familiarity of .com.

Take .forex, $1,500 minimum renewal fee, it's scandalous and nothing short of pure greed.

Random example - investin.forex - 10 years renewals $15,000
investinforex.com - available at BIN for 10k

Oh and the price may go up if we made a mistake and it was actually a reserved domain, better yet we may just take the domain back once we realise our error.

Which would you buy? I wouldn't buy either in all honesty but for the point of the argument it's a no brainer from an end user's perspective.

I own a few and I even developed one but I see them as a complete crap shoot. If you've invested wisely and you've found gems that are cheap to renew, kudos to you, I'm confident you'll likely see a ROI, maybe in 5 or 10 years time when they're more mainstream. If you're sitting on ngtlds with premium renewals, you're burning money imho.

It's a painstaking task to fish out the value in each ngltd so I prefer to put my energy in sniffing out value in .coms. Something else that is rarely mentioned is the fact all ngtlds are generally English words, I feel they have limitations in terms of successfully speaking to non-English speaking foreign markets.

.com is a universal extension that speaks to the entire global market.

 

[TRY]

just to clarify what I meant in my earlier post:

I am asking what is so special about the the 3 letters "com" as an extension (other than familiarity). Not 3 letter .com domain names.

Familiarity and Credibility, what else could you ask for...