Polls are pretty much meaningless these days, for 2 reasons. One is that some are obviously being run with an intent to support a particular position, so they fudge the numbers, word questions so that they lead to desired answers, etc. The other reason is that politics have become so contentious in some places (USA!USA!) that people are afraid or hesitant to give certain answers. For an extreme example, imagine a poll in North Korea asking if people love Kim Jong Un that returns 100% yes answers. (Maybe 99.9% because a few will not understand the question, will make a mistake in answering or will have a death wish.) Not quite so serious yet in the US, but people are definitely shamed by the media and others for being MAGA, for example. And they are probably being placed on lists they don't want to be on. So, I would expect a number not to be honest on polls. Enough to change the results for sure.
Hence Brexit and Trump, both of which had no chance according to the "scientific" polls.
